Science Nation, the National Science Foundation’s online magazine, presents an excellent, short video on drilling into an active fault zone.  Researchers from Penn State University examined rock recovered from the Parkfield, California, segment of the San Andreas Fault.  What they discovered was incompetent clay-rich material, which explains the aseismic nature of deformation there.

Other fault segments host more competent rock that seize up until increasing stress causes the rock to fail brittlely. Earthquake!

Mike Conway (26 December 2011)

The Lake Mary Fault, situated immediately south of Flagstaff, Arizona, represents the greatest earthquake hazard to the more than 70,000 people of Flagstaff and environs. In a new video, Dr. David Brumbaugh, Arizona Earthquake Information Center (AEIC) at Northern Arizona University, narrates the, “Lake Mary Fault – Potential Earthquake Threat to Flagstaff, Arizona”. Since the mid-1980’s, Dr. Brumbaugh has studied faults and monitored earthquakes of northern Arizona using the AEIC seismic network.

As Dave Brumbaugh notes in the video, the maximum probable earthquake of the ~ 25 mile long, Lake Mary fault is estimated at magnitude (M) M6.9 to M7.0. An event of that magnitude would have dire consequences for older structures and for unreinforced masonry buildings in the Flagstaff area. And Flagstaff is no stranger to moderate-sized earthquakes. From 1906 to 1912, three magnitude 6.0 to 6.2 earthquakes occurred within 24 miles of the town.

Video Link:  Lake Mary Fault – Potential Earthquake Threat to Flagstaff, AZ

Mike Conway (9 December 2011)

(Note: The following describes a statewide emergency preparedness exercise. The disaster events outlined below did not occur.)

How do you prepare for a civil emergency that results in thousands of people killed and wholesale destruction of a large metropolitan area? To answer that question, Arizona state, county, and municipal authorities, in close coordination with the Arizona National Guard, ran a week-long simulation – Arizona Vigilant Guard – that ends on Sunday, 6 November.

Arizona Vigilant Guard involves 8,000 people from more than 200 federal, state, county and municipal agencies, and with National Guard assets from Arizona and surrounding states – California, Nevada, Colorado and Utah. It is the largest exercise of its kind in the U.S. The Arizona Division of Emergency Management (ADEM) is the lead Arizona agency.

The exercise began with a simulated breach of the Waddell Dam north of Phoenix. Flood waters spilling into west Phoenix caused widespread flooding, civil disruption, and some evacuations. This first disaster was followed within days by the detonation of an improvised explosive nuclear device (IND) in downtown Phoenix. For this exercise, the IND was a 10 kiloton device that destroyed everything within a 2 mile radius of the blast, killing tens of thousands of individuals.

AZGS participated on Friday, the day following the detonation of the IND. In our role, we visited emergency operations centers at ADEM headquarters, Phoenix, and the Glendale Regional Public Safety Training Center (top photo). We observed hospital personnel at the Maricopa Integrated Health System treating victims – some real people and some blowup dolls (middle photo) -, some of whom arrived via Air National Guard Blackhawk helicopters. All victims were immediately taken to decontamination (decon) stations to have their clothing removed and to be thoroughly rinsed of any residual radiologic products. We observed, too, a simulated rescue from a carefully engineered rubble pile (immediately right).

The exercise ends today, 6 November, with a recovery tabletop exercise. After-action reports and analysis will go on for months.

See the East Valley Tribune for some additional information.

Mike Conway (6 November 2011)